Re: Serial killers - There can be many types of them. No need to even talk about the rise in true crime genre or whether they are likely to be as meticulous as Dexter or Hannibal Lector. That said, I think in every single notable American serial killer case there have been near misses and people who escaped. In some cases that led to the capture of the perp, but in others they were able to continue on, sometimes for years.
I've been to Rainey Street hundreds of times over the years, last went back in 2014 or 2015. Never once did I find myself wandering down to the water and I can't imagine why anyone else would especially someone not from Austin and with friends. A good friend's nephew was pulled from the lake in 2015, the medical examiner declared it a drowning, despite him being a strong competitive swimmer and there being no water in his lungs. Hmmm...his name was Zach in case anyone is interested in looking into it.
In any case, I'm not 100% on board with the *typical* serial killer explanation. That said, I'm seeing a lot of talk on various boards about being drugged at bars on Rainey and West 6th street, dating back several years. There is also much pooh pooing that theory for this spate of drownings by asking "well, how many of them have been robbed?" To which I usually answer: "Who knows, but if it takes the police 5 days or more to ID a body, doesn't it stand to reason that they didn't have their wallet/identification on them?"
Guess we'll just have to wait and see, but the numbers sure are piling up.
I appreciate the take. Although I have admittedly not seen the coroner's reports on these, it's very hard to imagine the toxicology tests wouldn't be screening for the classes of drugs that could cause so many to be victimized by a serial killer preying on those he compromises mentally and/or physically. Without evidence like that, we're still left with speculation.
Forgot to mention GHB as a possible intoxicant. Tasteless and nearly impossible to detect more than 12 hours after ingestion and most toxicology tests don't even include it. Yes this is speculative of course but there are many accounts of people believing they were drugged on Rainey and DT in general.
The escalation of drunk drowning deaths of young men in their 20’s and 30’s seems to trend according to geography. There will be a 2-3 year spate in the mid-west, then a spate a few years later on the East Coast, now in Austin. Always young men, always coming home from the bar, always alone. There’s never evidence- no texting while walking near the lake, no gps locator on their phone, no witnesses, no cries for help, no clear point of entry, no history of getting black out drunk. I attended college in Minnesota - land of 10,000 lakes and the mighty Mississippi. By design, it’s not easy to fall into a lake walking home from a bar in the city center. It’s even harder to be so drunk that you find your way to a lake, fall in and are unable to flip flop your way back out.
A discussion worth having. I feel the need to reveal my bias on serial killers, however. These monsters are rarely the patient, organized, elusive geniuses that they are too often made out to be. They're usually only modestly intelligent, highly impulsive, and incredibly sloppy. Hannibal Lecter doesn't exist. So the idea that there's a meticulous, city-hopping mastermind who just so happens to avoid leaving any evidence of their crimes in an era where it's harder to do so than ever, starts me at a No. BUT, to say it's impossible wouldn't be very wise.
Great feedback. I think you provide a balanced and reasoned view, which is awesome given the garbage that too often floats around in the internet. I’ve been reading about the missing men found in lakes and rivers for more than ten years and a lot has been written pro & con regarding the serial killer angle. The brief at the link below actually has sone good content on drowning stats and other data/ case studies that point toward the accidental death theory. That said, thousands of women and children go missing and are trafficked each year, many in plain site, so I’m not sure that we are as aware of bad actors as it would seem. http://homicidecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Research-Brief-on-Smiley-Face-Murder-Theory-FINAL.pdf
Not near Rainey, but another dead young man pulled from the lake today.
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/1-person-pronounced-dead-after-afd-crews-pull-person-from-lady-bird-lake/
Re: Serial killers - There can be many types of them. No need to even talk about the rise in true crime genre or whether they are likely to be as meticulous as Dexter or Hannibal Lector. That said, I think in every single notable American serial killer case there have been near misses and people who escaped. In some cases that led to the capture of the perp, but in others they were able to continue on, sometimes for years.
I've been to Rainey Street hundreds of times over the years, last went back in 2014 or 2015. Never once did I find myself wandering down to the water and I can't imagine why anyone else would especially someone not from Austin and with friends. A good friend's nephew was pulled from the lake in 2015, the medical examiner declared it a drowning, despite him being a strong competitive swimmer and there being no water in his lungs. Hmmm...his name was Zach in case anyone is interested in looking into it.
In any case, I'm not 100% on board with the *typical* serial killer explanation. That said, I'm seeing a lot of talk on various boards about being drugged at bars on Rainey and West 6th street, dating back several years. There is also much pooh pooing that theory for this spate of drownings by asking "well, how many of them have been robbed?" To which I usually answer: "Who knows, but if it takes the police 5 days or more to ID a body, doesn't it stand to reason that they didn't have their wallet/identification on them?"
Guess we'll just have to wait and see, but the numbers sure are piling up.
I appreciate the take. Although I have admittedly not seen the coroner's reports on these, it's very hard to imagine the toxicology tests wouldn't be screening for the classes of drugs that could cause so many to be victimized by a serial killer preying on those he compromises mentally and/or physically. Without evidence like that, we're still left with speculation.
Forgot to mention GHB as a possible intoxicant. Tasteless and nearly impossible to detect more than 12 hours after ingestion and most toxicology tests don't even include it. Yes this is speculative of course but there are many accounts of people believing they were drugged on Rainey and DT in general.
Do you have a link to reports of your friend's nephew being pulled from LBL? I tried searching but couldn't find anything.
Are you jessmarcel on Reddit by any chance?
no
https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/danj5d/body_recovered_from_lady_bird_lake/
See jessmarcel's comment. I'm pretty sure that's the nephew.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/1291okb/body_recovered_from_lady_bird_lake_saturday_apd/
Comment by CaffeineTX intimates that there was no police or media report of his death.
Santiago Gonzalez-Becerra was found in LBL in 2015 and was 23 years old. I have not been able to find any reports about a Zach.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/1291okb/comment/jeo27w9/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 (that should have been a direct jump to the comment by a user with "CaffeineTX" in their handle.
This may be a little too personal, and it's only because I know who it was.
https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/statesman/name/zachary-hester-obituary?id=18386781
It was in 2015 or 2016, so one of the earliest ones. Don't have a link. But you might search by year.
😔
The escalation of drunk drowning deaths of young men in their 20’s and 30’s seems to trend according to geography. There will be a 2-3 year spate in the mid-west, then a spate a few years later on the East Coast, now in Austin. Always young men, always coming home from the bar, always alone. There’s never evidence- no texting while walking near the lake, no gps locator on their phone, no witnesses, no cries for help, no clear point of entry, no history of getting black out drunk. I attended college in Minnesota - land of 10,000 lakes and the mighty Mississippi. By design, it’s not easy to fall into a lake walking home from a bar in the city center. It’s even harder to be so drunk that you find your way to a lake, fall in and are unable to flip flop your way back out.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-smiley-face-killer-chicago-deaths-spark-serial-killer-questions-1780257?amp=1
A discussion worth having. I feel the need to reveal my bias on serial killers, however. These monsters are rarely the patient, organized, elusive geniuses that they are too often made out to be. They're usually only modestly intelligent, highly impulsive, and incredibly sloppy. Hannibal Lecter doesn't exist. So the idea that there's a meticulous, city-hopping mastermind who just so happens to avoid leaving any evidence of their crimes in an era where it's harder to do so than ever, starts me at a No. BUT, to say it's impossible wouldn't be very wise.
Great feedback. I think you provide a balanced and reasoned view, which is awesome given the garbage that too often floats around in the internet. I’ve been reading about the missing men found in lakes and rivers for more than ten years and a lot has been written pro & con regarding the serial killer angle. The brief at the link below actually has sone good content on drowning stats and other data/ case studies that point toward the accidental death theory. That said, thousands of women and children go missing and are trafficked each year, many in plain site, so I’m not sure that we are as aware of bad actors as it would seem. http://homicidecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Research-Brief-on-Smiley-Face-Murder-Theory-FINAL.pdf