Does Austin Have a Serial Killer Problem?

Probably not, but there's some weird, horrific shit afoot near Rainey Street

Rainey Street on a weekend (Photo: Credit Jorge Sanhueza-Lyon/KUT)

We live in a bizarre world where an increasingly sizable swath of people have become all too willing to buy into less likely, more complex explanations due to the violent proliferation of sketchy, poorly-vetted information. This happens in politics. Public health. Even sports.

So it should surprise exactly nobody that a series of unusual deaths around Town Lake near Rainey Street over the last few years, which have only intensified lately, are now being linked by many to some crafty, ubiquitous serial killer. In fact, the largest, most rigorous statistical sample of Austin on the issue finds that a solid majority of y’all believe there’s a Rainey Street Ripper. That’s not nothing.

The trail near Rainey Street where a number of bodies have been found in the vicinity of (Photo credit: Aaron E. Martinez, Austin American Statesman)

But before I delve into what’s going on, let’s take a moment to remember that these are human beings who have died and left behind friends and loved ones who are going through unfathomable grief. That’s always the flip side of our obsession with true crime: loss, heartbreak, and devastation. Speculation and extrapolation as far as what happened is fine—I’m doing it here myself—but going in wide-eyed about what has been lost should be a prerequisite. So I want to say here how deeply sorry I am for this needless loss of life and I hope that the families and friends of those lost are finding some way forward through the tragedy.

Jon Honey lost his young life last weekend. He was found dead in Town Lake near Rainey Street. Depending on what source you trust, there are wildly differing numbers on how many people have been discovered dead, like Jon, in or near this area of Town Lake in recent years. So it’s not shocking that there are thriving theories out there about a serial murderer preying upon intoxicated men near the Rainey Street entertainment district. Many such theories are coming from a fundamentally good place, while others are shamelessly preying upon the situation for personal gain.

Look, I’m not here to say that speculation about a murderer is unwarranted. It appeals to our sense of justice and seeking to explain things to make them seem less random, as well as a primordial fascination about dying prematurely, with a bit of death-as-entertainment mixed in. Add in a very real problem like ghouls spiking drinks in this same area, and there’s a fertile field for a thriving harvest of serial killer frenzy.

My goal today isn’t a deep examination of these recent deaths. This isn’t a Mindhunter style thinkpiece. There will be plenty of y’all who take an analytic and data-driven hammer to this situation. That’s not my intent here.

So, accordingly, I’m not here to say that there isn’t an active psychopath thriving in the dark spaces of downtown Austin right now. There’s no way to be even close to sure at this point and it clearly needs more attention from the Austin police, who are already getting roundly criticized for their response times in many different areas (enough so for the city to shockingly send a Bat Signal up to Texas DPS), as well as the somewhat paint by numbers tone of their most definitive statement on the deaths. This, of course, plays right into the yearning mitts of the “Austin is soft-on-crime” mob who thrive by weaponizing fear.

But I am a firm believer in Occam’s Razor, a principle that says the simplest, most logical explanation for something is usually the best guess. While this is not always right, it’s frequently so. And because of this, it’s a really good place to start in situations like these young men turning up dead near Rainey Street.

I’m not a criminologist or a forensic pathologist. I’m well aware of my limitations. But what I have going for me is an ability to see and accept those limitations and not presume that a few hours of internet sleuthing makes me an expert on what is happening.

But many of y’all don’t share this same philosophy. That’s a hallmark of true crime, whose origins are, in my opinion, generally coming from a good place where trails have run cold and police resources are stretched thin. The Golden State Killer is a good example of citizen-investigators yielding fruit. But the dark side of true crime is the fact that anyone can make an interpretation that others, often in significant numbers, can take as fact, and then it propagates from there in the same way that other, less noble, conspiracy theories do.

In the end, a serial murderer could be behind what’s happening now in Austin. It’s impossible for me, or you, to know this right now. But I caution y’all who have already decided, based on spotty evidence, deep speculation, and without the benefit of forensic/factual backing, that a serial killer is likely—or worse, a certainty. One commonality amongst many who have died is intoxication and wandering off alone in a poorly-lit area close to water. While one may see these as an ideal environment for a brutal murderer, Occam’s Razor suggests human error. Drunk individuals, unfamiliar with the terrain, having a tragic accident near a body of water in the dark. Incredibly sad, but that’s obviously very different from being a murder victim.

So what do I suggest as this plays out?

1. Keep an open mind. None of y’all know what is going on here yet. Don’t act like you do, even if people give you a bunch of Likes, Upvotes, and RT. Those don’t mean shit in the context of actually knowing the truth.

2. Hold authorities accountable. Even in the likely event there’s not a killer, this situation deserves a smart, timely, and robust investigation from the Austin Police and any authorities assisting them. They can’t be allowed to fall short or use excuses.

3. Demand practical things from Austin, like better lighting and security cameras in potentially dangerous areas. These types of measures can help no matter what the cause of these deaths is, and given how easy and inexpensive the technology is (unless you try to frame it as needing to be done for the entire several mile long trail, which is not necessary, rather than just near Rainey), it’s pretty hard to believe we’re still having to ask for it now. This is the very least Mayor Kirk Watson and city leaders can do. No goddamn committees are needed. Bid the project and get it done.

4. Take care of your friends and yourself. If y’all are out together drinking, and someone wants to head off alone for food or to go home, don’t let them do it without a bud. And don’t do it yourself. Make plans ahead of time. This is smart whether or not there’s a killer.

Please be careful out there, y’all. I’ll update this as events warrant.