Et Tu, Austin Rain Dome?

Yet Another Divisive Issue Takes Hold of Our City

Look, I have a Bucket List of sorts that casually hovers over my life: Going front row at a Bon Jovi concert where JBJ sings like 1987 him and not a drowning cat. Seeing ONE goddamn food item that hasn’t gotten smaller and more expensive since 2021. Getting high with Willie Nelson and/or A. Whitney Brown. But I realize that these are merely pipe dreams (figuratively and, in one case, literally).

But I can comfortably say that a minor tweet war with the National Weather Service and a couple of its acolytes about the existence of an Austin Rain Dome is not one of them.

But here we are. How very 2023.

Let me set the scene. If you’ve lived in Austin since before SXSW this year, you know of what I speak: A robust red storm appears on the radar west of Austin, with a parade of hype. 80% chance of rain. Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Mason County. Nickel-sized hail. This is really happening, y’all, and your lawn/outdoor plants have Rain Boners. Hell, Westlake folk might even cut waterings back from four times a week to three.

Then it happens. It’s subtle at first. The radar reds fade to orange. The once pure easternly direction of the blob starts to dip north, south, or both. The pit starts to form in your stomach. Oh my fucking God it’s happening again.

20 minutes later, the storm goes all “trying to avoid an ex” and dips around Austin (you’re welcome, Bell County). The Austin Rain Dome has struck again. Cue the memes, hand-wringing, and, lately, denials that it’s even real. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Similar is seeing a projected, hyped-up 4” to 6” event turn into flaccid dust faster than you can say “Westlake Date Night.”

The Austin Rain Dome captured in nature, circa 2013

Look, my Twitter account is hardly a shrinking violet when it comes to parlaying life’s minor disappointments into content. I’m Austin traffic-themed. Disappointment porn is kind of my bedrock. So I’ve not been shy about promoting my Austin Rain Dome theories going way back. It’s a thing. Mostly a joke, but also some basis in reality, because WE’VE. ALL. SEEN. IT. HAPPEN.

In 2023, even some of Austin’s most well-respected (and meme Jedi) weatherfolk are on board for the Rain Dome ride. It’s lighthearted fun that’s as relatable as a BMW with no blinker joke. And when the dome fails, you bet your sweet ass I’m there, too.

But what happens when it turns from a meme to a scientific debate? I can speak from experience when I say it quickly devolves into something a lot less fun and lighthearted.

Having an official NWS account basically poo-poo the existence of something that a million people FEEL is real isn’t ideal, even if there’s a legitimate belief that the science doesn’t bear the observed phenomenon out. And let’s be clear here—observation by the masses is NOT science (shoutout to Copernicus and his heliocentric universe, seen by many at the time as heretical). But, just the same, the mind of the non-pro longs for explanation and synthesis. It’s not too much to ask.

(UPDATE: The Austin/San Antonio NWS went into more detail in a thread/Q&A on why they don’t believe there’s a Rain Dome at play in Austin.)

Along those lines, the University of Texas-Austin recently studied the “Austin Rain Dome” phenomenon, and apparently came to a conclusion that the Balcones Escarpment WAS having an impact on rain patterns around Austin, shifting storms away from the city.

Another local meteorologist has used his years of training to confirm and explain this Rain Dome as a “microscale geographical phenomenon.”

This feels like a bit of sweet validation for all my years of Rain Dome memes, but that’s not quite the end of the story.

The NWS would surely say that, over time (read: climate not weather), Austin’s rainfall totals have ebbed and flowed with general patterns, including drought. And that these amounts have remained consistent and, in many cases, can be even higher than nearby places not experiencing Balcones Escarpment Storm Birth Control.

So, can both things be true? Can there be a geologic feature here that pushes back on storms at the same time as rainfall totals generally remain constant? Yes, it seems. Although we get into chicken/egg a bit on whether or not the expected rainfall totals for Austin are building in the Rain Dome Effect, either consciously or not.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention my concern with people interpreting my Rain Dome advocacy as somehow anti-science. I don’t see it that way. As anyone who has followed this account would attest to by now, I revile/clown on conspiracy theories and embrace science and logic. Meteorology is an important field of science that’s populated by intelligent people whom I respect. I simply had a little bone to pick here and I picked it.

And when Austin gets hammered by rain (as it probably will be this Friday/Saturday), I’ll be here for that like always. This works both ways. I’m not a Rain Dome Squidward.

I’d love to hear from any weather pros, below. My Twitter DMs had an angry sizzler earlier today (that I should have handled better, and I feel badly about it) that doesn’t appear to be reflective of the weather community as a whole, but maybe the rest are just too polite to tell me to fuck off.

But, even if that happened, I’d continue to believe in the Austin Rain Dome. It’s more than a weather feature now. It’s a bona-fide part of Austin culture.